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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent underperformers rising collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still